Bart Verheggen

Wat Iedereen zou Moeten Weten over Klimaatverandering

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Literatuurlijst

Enkele bronnen zijn dermate relevant voor een groot deel van het boek dat deze vooraf apart worden benoemd en daarna niet meer worden herhaald. Dit betreft bijvoorbeeld de rapporten van het Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), die te vinden zijn via www.ipcc.ch/reports/.

Veelgebruikte bronnen

• IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. R.K. Pachauri en L.A. Meyer (eds.).
• IPCC, 2013: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Thomas Stocker e.a. (eds.). Cambridge University Press.
• IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Chris B. Field e.a. (eds.). Cambridge University Press.
• IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. O.R. Edenhofer e.a. (eds.). Cambridge University Press.
• IPCC, 2018: Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty. V. Masson-Delmotte e.a. (eds.).
• IPCC, 2019: Climate Change and Land: an IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems. P.R. Shukla e.a. (eds.).
• IPCC, 2019: IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. H.-O. Pörtner e.a. (eds.).
• Willem Ligtvoet en Bram Bregman (eds.), ‘Klimaatverandering. Samenvatting van het vijfde IPCC-assessment en een vertaling naar Nederland’. PBL en KNMI, 2015.
• Pierre Friedlingstein e.a., ‘Global Carbon Budget 2019’. Earth Syst Sci Data, 2019. doi: 10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019.
• Peter Siegmund e.a., ‘The Global Climate in 2015–2019’. World Meteorological Organization, 2019.
• Mario Molina e.a. ‘What we know. The reality, risks, and response to climate change’. American Association for the Advancement of Science, 2014.
• Bart Strengers, Rob van Dorland en Leo Meyer, ‘De achtergrond van het klimaatprobleem’. Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving, 2013.
• ‘Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I’. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington DC, 2017. D.J. Wuebbles e.a. (eds.) doi: 10.7930/J0J964J6.
• Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut, KNMI.
• Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving, PBL.
• Compendium voor de Leefomgeving, CLO.
• Klimaatverandering: context, reflectie & discussie (ons blog).
• Skeptical Science: getting skeptical about global warming skepticism.
• Real Climate: climate science from climate scientists.
• Carbon Brief: clear on climate.
• Climate Feedback: a scientific reference to reliable information on climate change.

1. Het maatschappelijk klimaatdebat

• Bart Verheggen, ‘The Public Debate on Climate Change’. In: S. George Philander (ed), Encyclopedia of Global Warming & Climate Change, 2012. doi: 10.4135/9781452218564.n314.
• Mike Hulme, Why We Disagree About Climate Change: Understanding Controversy, Inaction and Opportunity. Cambridge University Press, 2009.

Kader: Internet en social media

• Michela Del Vicario e.a., ‘The spreading of misinformation online’. P Natl Acad Sci, 2016. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1517441113.

Waarom de klimaatwetenschap wordt afgewezen

• Jan Paul van Soest, De Twijfelbrigade. Waarom de klimaatwetenschap wordt afgewezen en de wereldthermostaat 4 graden hoger gaat. Uitgeverij Maurits Groen, 2014.
• Geoffrey Supran en Naomi Oreskes, ‘Assessing ExxonMobil's climate change communications (1977–2014)’. Environm Res Lett, 2017. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa815f.
• Troy Campbell en Aaron Kay, ‘Solution Aversion: On the Relation Between Ideology and Motivated Disbelief’. J Pers Soc Psych, 2014. doi: 10.1037/a0037963.
• Matthew Hornsey e.a., ‘Meta-analyses of the determinants and outcomes of belief in climate change’. Nature Clim Change, 2016. doi: 10.1038/nclimate2943.
• Stephan Lewandowsky e.a., ‘Motivated Rejection of Science’. Curr Dir Psychol Sci, 2016. doi: 10.1177/0963721416654436.
• Katherine Hayhoe, ‘How do we know this climate change thing is even real?’. Youtube, Global Weirding, 2016.
• Collin Maessen, ‘The Skepticism In Skeptical Science’, Skeptical Science, 2014.
• Simon Donner, ‘Making the Climate a Part of the Human World’. B Am Meteorol Soc, 2011. doi: 10.1175/2011BAMS3219.1.

Kader: Vergelijkbaar debat over de ozonlaag

• Jeffrey Masters, ‘The Skeptics vs. the Ozone Hole’, Weather Underground.
• @NOSRadio1, ‘Verslaggever @MattijsvdWiel is in De Bilt, waar boeren protesteren tegen het RIVM. "Ik vertrouw de stikstofmetingen niet, want ik ben het er niet mee eens", zegt een boerin die gisteren om 20:30 van huis vertrok. #r1jn’. Twitter, 16 Oktober 2019.

De rol van de media

• Mark Traa, ‘Klimaatkunde of klimaatkul?’. HP/De Tijd, 2012.
• Bart Verheggen e.a., ‘Scientists’ views about attribution of global warming’. Environm Sci Technol, 2014. doi: 10.1021/es501998e.
• Maxwell T. Boykoff, ‘Public Enemy No. 1? Understanding Media Representations of Outlier Views on Climate Change’. Am Behav Sci, 2013. doi: 10.1177/0002764213476846.
• Maxwell T. Boykoff e.a., ‘Balance as bias: global warming and the US prestige press’. Glob Environm Change, 2004. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.001.
• Jeroen P. van der Sluijs e.a., ‘Ruimte voor klimaatdebat. Zicht op interactie tussen klimaatpolitiek, wetenschap en media’, Rathenau Instituut, 2010.

Wetenschappelijke consensus

• Naomi Oreskes, ‘The scientific consensus on climate change: How do we know we’re not wrong?’. In: A. Lloyd en E. Winsberg (eds), Climate Modelling, 2018. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-65058-6_2.
• Edward W. Maibach e.a., ‘The importance of assessing and communicating scientific consensus’. Environm Res Lett, 2016. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/091003.
• John Cook e.a., ‘Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming’. Environm Res Lett, 2016. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002.
• Maurice Finocchiaro, ‘The Galileo affair’. Physics World, 2009.

Kader: 97 procent?

• John Cook e.a., ‘Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature’. Environm Res Lett, 2013. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024.
• Richard S. J. Tol, ‘Comment on ‘Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature’. Environm Res Lett, 2016. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048001.
• John Cook e.a., ‘Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming’. Environm Res Lett, 2016. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002.
• Bart Verheggen e.a., ‘Scientists’ views about attribution of global warming’. Environm Sci Technol, 2014. doi: 10.1021/es501998e.
• Linda Qiu, ‘Santorum cites flawed climate change figure and misquotes it’. Politifact, 2015.
• Dave Levitan, ‘Santorum’s Climate Consensus Claims’. Factcheck, 2015.

Het Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

• The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, www.ipcc.ch.
• Christopher B. Field en Vicente R. Barros, ‘Added value from IPCC approval sessions’. Science, 2015. doi: 10.1126/science.aaa8976.

Algemene kenmerken van wetenschapsontkenning

• Nicoli Nattrass, ‘AIDS and the Scientific Governance of Medicine in Post-Apartheid South Africa’. Afr Affairs, 2008. doi: 10.1093/afraf/adm087.
• Pride Chigwedere e.a., ‘Estimating the Lost Benefits of Antiretroviral Drug Use in South Africa’. J Acq Imm Def, 2008. doi: 10.1097/QAI.0b013e31818a6cd5.
• Pascal Diethelm en Martin McKee, ‘Denialism: what is it and how should scientists respond?’ Eur J Publ Health, 2009. doi: 10.1093/eurpub/ckn139.
• @realDonaldTrump, ‘The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make U.S. manufacturing non-competitive.’ Twitter, 6 November 2012.
• Spencer Weart, ‘Global warming: How skepticism became denial’. Bull Atomic Sci, 2011. doi: 10.1177/0096340210392966.
• Jaap Tielbeke, ‘De cultuuroorlog heeft het klimaatdebat bereikt. Drie procent nep-Galileo’s’. De Groene Amsterdammer, 2019.
• Katharine Hayhoe, ‘Climate change, that's just a money grab by scientist... right?’ Youtube, Global Weirding, 2017.
• Naomi Oreskes en Erik M. Conway, Merchants of doubt. How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming. Bloomsbury Press, 2010.
• G.P. Wayne, ‘How the OISM Petition Project casts doubt on the scientific consensus on climate change’. Skeptical Science, 2013.
• ‘Letter signed by “500 scientists” relies on inaccurate claims about climate science’, Climate Feedback, 2019.

Kader: Onzekerheid en risico

• Stephan Lewandowsky e.a., ‘Uncertainty as knowledge’. Phil Trans R Soc, 2015. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2014.0462.
• ‘Scientist who popularized term “global warming” dies at 87’. Associated Press, 2019.

2. De basis: energie, temperatuur en broeikaseffect

• Paul de Nooijer en Menno de Nooijer, ‘Stop The Greenhouse Effect’. 1992.

De temperatuur van de aarde

• Graeme Stephens e.a., ’The albedo of Earth’. Rev Geophys, 2015. doi: 10.1002/2014RG000449.

Kader: Hoe warm is de aarde?

• Andrew Lacis e.a., ‘Atmospheric CO₂: Principal Control Knob Governing Earth’s Temperature’. Science, 2010. doi: 10.1126/science.1190653.
• ‘Hoe warmen broeikasgassen de aarde op?’ KNMI, 2010.

Het natuurlijke broeikaseffect

• Raymond T. Pierrehumbert, ‘Infrared radiation and planetary temperature’. Phys Today, 2011. doi: 10.1063/1.3541943.
• Maryam Etminan e.a., ‘Radiative forcing of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide: A significant revision of the methane radiative forcing’, Geophys Res Lett, 2016. doi: 10.1002/2016GL071930.
• Ameet Raval en Veerabhadran Ramanathan, ‘Observational determination of the greenhouse effect’. Nature, 1989. doi: 10.1038/342758a0.

Kader: De ontdekking van het broeikaseffect

• Spencer Weart, ‘The Discovery of Global Warming’. Am Inst Phys.
• Svante Arrhenius, ‘On the influence of carbonic acid in the air upon the temperature of the ground’. Phil M J Science, 1896. doi: 10.1080/14786449608620846.

Energiebalans van de aarde

• Kevin E. Trenberth e.a., ‘Earth's Global Energy Budget’. B Am Meteorol Soc, 2009. doi: 10.1175/2008BAMS2634.1.
• ‘Energiebalans van de aarde’, KNMI.

Het versterkte broeikaseffect

• Myles Allen en Raymond T. Pierrehumbert, ‘The greenhouse effect’. Thin Ice. The inside story of climate science, 2012.
• Daniel R. Feldman e.a., ‘Observational determination of surface radiative forcing by CO₂ from 2000 to 2010’. Nature, 2015. doi: 10.1038/nature14240.

Kader: Het verschrikkelijke broeikaseffect van Venus

• ‘Predicted Planetary Temperatures’, American Chemical Society.
• Michael J. Way e.a., ‘Was Venus the first habitable world of our solar system?’. Geophys Res Lett, 2016. doi: 10.1002/2016GL069790.
• ‘Earth is not at risk of becoming a hothouse like Venus, as Stephen Hawking claimed’. Climate Feedback, 2017.

Terugkoppelingen

• Christoph Heinze e.a., ‘Climate feedbacks in the Earth system and prospects for their evaluation’. Earth Sys Dyn, 2019. doi: 10.5194/esd-10-379-2019.
• Felix Pithan en Thorsten Mauritsen, ‘Arctic amplification dominated by temperature feedbacks in contemporary climate models’. Nature Geosci, 2014. doi: 10.1038/ngeo2071.

3. De rol van CO₂ in het klimaat

De snelle toename van CO₂

• Rob Monroe, ‘The History of the Keeling Curve’. Scripps Inst Oceanography, 2013.
• Dieter Lüthi e.a., ‘High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-800,000 years before present’. Nature, 2008. doi: 10.1038/nature06949.
• Fortunat Joos en Renato Spahni, ‘Rates of change in natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing over the past 20,000 years’. P Natl Acad Sci,2008. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0707386105.

De huidige CO₂-toename komt door de mens

• Eric Steig, ‘How do we know that recent CO₂ increases are due to human activities?’. Real Climate, 2004.
• Ralph F. Keeling e.a., ‘Global and hemispheric CO₂ sinks deduced from changes in atmospheric O₂ concentration’. Nature, 1996. doi: 10.1038/381218a0.
• Terry Gerlach, ‘Volcanic versus anthropogenic carbon dioxide’. EOS, 2011. doi: 10.1029/2011EO240001.

De koolstofcyclus

• David Archer, The Global Carbon Cycle. Princeton University Press, 2010.
• Josep Peñuelas e.a., ‘Shifting from a fertilization-dominated to a warming-dominated period’. Nat Ecol Evol, 2017. doi: 10.1038/s41559-017-0274-8.
• ‘Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide’, The Royal Society, 2005.
• Michael R. Raupach, ‘The declining uptake rate of atmospheric CO₂ by land and ocean sinks’. Biogeosciences, 2014. doi: 10.5194/bg-11-3453-2014.

De duizendjarige tijdschaal van CO₂

• David Archer e.a., ‘Atmospheric Lifetime of Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide’. A Rev Earth Planet Sci, 2009. doi: 10.1146/annurev.earth.031208.100206.
• Geoffrey Gebbie en Peter Huybers, ‘The Mean Age of Ocean Waters Inferred from Radiocarbon Observations: Sensitivity to Surface Sources and Accounting for Mixing Histories’. J Phys Ocean, 2011. doi: 10.1175/JPO-D-11-043.1.
• David Archer en Andrey Ganopolski, ‘A movable trigger: Fossil fuel CO₂ and the onset of the next glaciation’. Geochem Geophys Geosyst, 2005. doi: 10.1029/2004GC000891.
• Peter U. Clark e.a., ‘Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change’. Nature Clim Change, 2016. doi: 10.1038/nclimate2923.

De rol van CO₂ in het verre verleden

• Richard B. Alley, ‘The biggest Control Knob: Carbon Dioxide in Earth’s Climate History’. Youtube, Bjerknes Lecture, Am Geophys Union, 2009.
• Lee R. Kump e.a., The Earth System. Pearson, 2010.
• Georg Feulner, ‘The faint young Sun problem’. Rev Geophys, 2012. doi: 10.1029/2011RG000375.
• Paul Hoffman e.a., ‘Snowball Earth climate dynamics and Cryogenian geology-geobiology’. Sci Adv, 2017. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1600983.
• Darcy E. Ogden en Norman H. Sleep, ‘Explosive eruption of coal and basalt and the end-Permian mass extinction’. P Natl Acad Sci, 2011. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1118675109.

Kader: De verweringsthermostaat

• James C. G. Walker e.a., ‘A negative feedback mechanism for the long-term stabilization of earth's surface temperature’. J Geophys Res, 1981. doi: 10.1029/JC086iC10p09776.

Vanaf de dinosaurussen tot nu

• Richard E. Zeebe en James C. Zachos, ‘Long-term legacy of massive carbon input to the Earth system: Anthropocene versus Eocene’. Phil Trans R Soc A, 2013. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2012.0006.
• Donald E. Penman e.a., ‘Rapid and sustained surface ocean acidification during the Paleocene‐Eocene Thermal Maximum’. Paleoceanography, 2014. doi: 10.1002/2014PA002621.
• Marcus Gutjahr e.a., ‘Very large release of mostly volcanic carbon during the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum’, Nature, 2017. doi: 10.1038/nature23646.
• Frieling et al., ‘Widespread Warming Before and Elevated Barium Burial During the Paleocene‐Eocene Thermal Maximum: Evidence for Methane Hydrate Release?’. Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 2019. doi: 10.1029/2018PA003425.
• Diederik Liebrand e.a., ‘Evolution of the early Antarctic ice ages’. P Natl Acad Sci, 2017. doi 10.1073/pnas.1615440114.
• Jeremy D. Shakun e.a., ‘Global warming preceded by increasing carbon dioxide concentrations during the last deglaciation’. Nature, 2012. doi: 10.1038/nature10915.
• Dutton e.a., ‘Sea-level rise due to polar ice-sheet mass loss during past warm periods’. Science, 2015. doi: 10.1126/science.aaa4019.

4. Het klimaat verandert in hoog tempo

Opwarming van het aardoppervlak

• Thomas R. Karl e.a., ‘Possible artifacts of data biases in the recent global surface warming hiatus’, Science, 2015. doi: 10.1126/science.aaa5632.

Kader: Warmt de aarde echt op?

• Richard Muller, ‘The Conversion of a Climate-Change Skeptic’, The New York Times 2012.

Satellietmetingen

• ‘Upper Air Temperature’, Remote Sensing Systems.
• Kevin Cowtan, ‘Surface Temperature or Satellite Brightness?’. Skeptical Science, 2016.
• Carl A. Mears e.a., ‘Assessing uncertainty in estimates of atmospheric temperature changes from MSU and AMSU using a Monte‐Carlo estimation technique’. J Geophys Res, 2011. doi: 10.1029/2010JD014954.
• Roz Pidcock, ‘Satellite measurements of the troposphere confirm warming trend, data shows’. Carbon Brief, 2015.

Kortetermijnvariatie versus langetermijntrend

• David R. Easterling en Michael F. Wehner, ‘Is the climate warming or cooling?’. Geophys Res Lett, 2009. doi: 10.1029/2009GL037810.
• Stefan Rahmstorf e.a., ‘Global temperature evolution: recent trends and some pitfalls’. Environm Res Lett, 2017. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa6825.
• James S Risbey e.a., ‘A fluctuation in surface temperature in historical context: reassessment and retrospective on the evidence’. Environm Res Lett, 2018. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aaf342.

De oceanen als warmtereservoir

• Lijing Cheng e.a., ‘Improved estimates of ocean heat content from 1960 to 2015’. Sci Adv, 2017. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1601545.

Zeespiegel

• Kurt Lambeck e.a., ‘Sea level and global ice volumes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene’. P Natl Acad Sci, 2014. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1411762111.
• B. Dieng e.a., ‘New estimate of the current rate of sea level rise from a sea level budget approach’. Geophys Res Lett, 2017. doi: 10.1002/2017GL073308.

Zee-ijs

• ‘Falling up’. NSIDC, 2019.
• ‘Analysis of “Next year or the year after, the Arctic will be free of ice”’. Climate Feedback, 2016.
• Paul R. Holland en Ron Kwok, ‘Wind-driven trends in Antarctic sea-ice drift’. Nature Geosci, 2012. doi: 10.1038/ngeo1627.
• Bintanja e.a., ‘Important role for ocean warming and increased ice-shelf melt in Antarctic sea-ice expansion’. Nature Geosci, 2013. doi: 10.1038/ngeo1767.

Sneeuw

• Global Snow Lab, Rutgers University.
• Southern Hemisphere Snow Cover Extent, NOAA.

Gletsjers

• Rafi Letzter, ‘Every Year, the Swiss Cover Their Melting Glaciers in White Blankets’. Live Science, 2018.
• Nathan Forsythe e.a., ‘Karakoram temperature and glacial melt driven by regional atmospheric circulation variability’. Nature Clim Change, 2017. doi: 10.1038/nclimate3361.
• Remco J. de Kok e.a., ‘Irrigation as a Potential Driver for Anomalous Glacier Behavior in High Mountain Asia’. Geophys Res Lett, 2018. doi: 10.1002/2017GL076158.
• The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment. Springer, 2019. doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-92288-1.

De grote ijskappen

• Eric Rignot e.a., ‘Four decades of Antarctic Ice Sheet mass balance from 1979–2017’. P Natl Acad Sci, 2019. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1812883116.
• Jérémie Mouginot e.a., ‘Forty-six years of Greenland Ice Sheet mass balance from 1972 to 2018’. P Natl Acad Sci, 2019. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1904242116.

Biologische veranderingen

• ‘Climate Change Indicators: Bird Wintering Ranges’, EPA.
• Thomas Labbé e.a., ‘The longest homogeneous series of grape harvest dates, Beaune 1354–2018, and its significance for the understanding of past and present climate’. Clim Past, 2019. doi: 10.5194/cp-15-1485-2019.
• Yasuyuki Aono, ‘Cherry blossom phenology and temperature reconstructions at Kyoto’.

5. Oorzaken van klimaatverandering

• Fortunat Joos en Renato Spahni, ‘Rates of change in natural and anthropogenic radiative forcing over the past 20,000 years’. P Natl Acad Sci, 2008. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0707386105.

Klimaatschommelingen

• El Niño and Other Oscillations, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution.
• Yu Kosaka en Shang-Ping Xie, ‘The tropical Pacific as a key pacemaker of the variable rates of global warming’. Nature Geosci, 2016. doi: 10.1038/ngeo2770.
• ‘Uitleg over El Niño’, KNMI..
• ‘Uitleg over La Niña’, KNMI.

De zon

• Rob van Dorland e.a., ‘Scientific Assessment of Solar Induced Climate Change’. RIVM/MNP, 2006.
• Judith L. Lean, ‘Estimating Solar Irradiance Since 850 CE’. Earth and Space Science, 2018. doi: 10.1002/2017EA000357.
• Mike Lockwood en Claus Fröhlich, ‘Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature’. Proc R Soc A, 2007. doi: 10.1098/rspa.2007.1880.
• Marshall Shepherd, ‘Why Solar Activity and Cosmic Rays can’t explain Global Warming’. Forbes, 2019.
• Georg Feulner en Stefan Rahmstorf, ‘On the effect of a new grand minimum of solar activity on the future climate on Earth’. Geophys Res Lett, 2010. doi: 10.1029/2010GL042710.

Kader: Invloed vanuit de kosmos

• Ken Carslaw e.a., ‘Cosmic Rays, Clouds, and Climate’. Science, 2002. doi: 10.1126/science.1076964.
• Kulmala, ‘Atmospheric data over a solar cycle: no connection between galactic cosmic rays and new particle formation’. Atmos Chem Phys, 2010. doi: 10.5194/acp-10-1885-2010.
• Jeffrey Pierce and Peter Adams, ‘Can cosmic rays affect cloud condensation nuclei by altering new particle formation rates?’ J Geophys Res, 2009. doi: 10.1029/2009GL037946.
• Bart Verheggen, ‘Aerosol effects and climate, Part II: the role of nucleation and cosmic rays’. Real Climate, 2009.

Vulkanen

• Terry Gerlach, ‘Volcanic versus anthropogenic carbon dioxide’. EOS, 2011. doi: 10.1029/2011EO240001.

Broeikasgassen

• The Kigali Amendment to the Montreal protocol: another global commitment to stop climate change, United Nations Environment Programme, 2016.

Kader: Is waterdamp het belangrijkste broeikasgas?

• Andrew E. Dessler en Steven C. Sherwood, ‘A Matter of Humidity’. Science, 2009. doi: 10.1126/science.1171264.
• ‘Broeikasgas waterdamp’, KNMI.

Aerosolen

• Rachel M. Hoesly e.a., ‘Historical (1750–2014) anthropogenic emissions of reactive gases and aerosols from the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS)’. Geosci Model Dev, 2018. doi: 10.5194/gmd-11-369-2018.
• Bart Verheggen en Ernie P. Weijers, ‘Climate change and the impact of aerosol’. Energieonderzoek Centrum Nederland, 2010.

Kader: Global cooling?

• Ichtiaque Rasool en Stephen H. Schneider, ‘Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols: Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate’. Science, 1971. doi: 10.1126/science.173.3992.138.
• Thomas C. Peterson e.a., ‘The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus’. B Am Meteorol Soc, 2008. doi: 10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1.

Andere factoren

• Richard A. Betts, ‘Offset of the potential carbon sink from boreal forestation by decreases in surface albedo’. Nature, 2000. doi: 10.1038/35041545.
• ‘Vliegtuigstrepen’, KNMI.

Menselijke versus natuurlijke invloed

• Zeke Hausfather, ‘Why scientists think 100% of global warming is due to humans’. Carbon Brief, 2017.
• Imbers e.a., ‘Testing the robustness of the anthropogenic climate change detection statements using different empirical models’. J Geophys Res, 2013. doi: 10.1002/jgrd.50296.

De vingerafdrukken van de mens

• John E. Harries, ‘Increases in greenhouse forcing inferred from the outgoing longwave radiation spectra of the Earth in 1970 and 1997’. Nature, 2001. doi: 10.1038/35066553.
• E. Brindley en R. J. Bantges, ‘The Spectral Signature of Recent Climate Change’. Curr Clim Change Rep, 2016. doi: 10.1007/s40641-016-0039-5.
• Laštovicka e.a., ‘Global Change in the Upper Atmosphere’. Science, 2006. doi: 10.1126/science.1135134.
• Benjamin D. Santer e.a., ‘Contributions of Anthropogenic and Natural Forcing to Recent Tropopause Height Changes’. Science, 2003. doi: 10.1126/science.1084123.
• Fredric W. Taylor e.a., ‘Venus: The Atmosphere, Climate, Surface, Interior and Near-Space Environment of an Earth-Like Planet’. Space Sci Rev, 2018. doi: 10.1007/s11214-018-0467-8.
• ‘Broeikaseffect verkleint verschil dag en nacht’, KNMI.

Klimaatmodellen

• Gavin A. Schmidt en Steven Sherwood, ‘A practical philosophy of complex climate modelling’. Euro J Phil Sci, 2014. doi: 10.1007/s13194-014-0102-9.
• Julia C. Hargreaves en James D. Annan, ‘Can we trust climate models?’. WIREs Clim Change, 2014. doi: 10.1002/wcc.288.
• ‘How do climate models work?’ CarbonBrief, 2018.
• Syukuro Manabe en Richard T. Wetherald, ‘Thermal Equilibrium of the Atmosphere with a Given Distribution of Relative Humidity’. J Atmos Sci, 1967. doi: 10.1175/1520-0469(1967)024<0241.
• Syukuro Manabe en Richard T. Wetherald, ‘The Effects of Doubling the CO₂ Concentration on the climate of a General Circulation Model’. J Atmos Sci, 1975. doi: 10.1175/1520-0469(1975)032<0003.
• James Hansen e.a., ‘Potential climate impact of Mount Pinatubo eruption’. Geophys Res Lett, 1992. doi: 10.1029/91GL02788.

Kader: Appels met peren vergelijken

• Iselin Medhaug e.a., ‘Reconciling controversies about the ‘global warming hiatus’’. Nature, 2017. doi: 10.1038/nature22315.
• Stephan Lewandowsky e.a., ‘The ‘pause’ in global warming in historical context: (II). Comparing models to observations’. Environm Res Lett, 2018. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aaf372.

6. De toekomst zal het leren

Klimaatgevoeligheid

• Michael Previdi e.a., ‘Climate sensitivity in the Anthropocene’. Q J R Meteorol Soc, 2013. doi: 10.1002/qj.2165.
• Peter M. Caldwell e.a., ‘Evaluating Emergent Constraints on Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity’. J Climate, 2018. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0631.1.
• Steven C. Sherwood e.a., ‘Spread in model climate sensitivity traced to atmospheric convective mixing’. Nature, 2014. doi: 10.1038/nature12829.
• John T. Fasullo en Kevin E. Trenberth, ‘A Less Cloudy Future: The Role of Subtropical Subsidence in Climate Sensitivity’. Science, 2012. doi: 10.1126/science.1227465.
• Reto Knutti e.a., ‘Beyond equilibrium climate sensitivity’. Nature Geosci, 2017. doi: 10.1038/ngeo3017.
• Diego Jiménez-de-la-Cuesta en Thorsten Mauritsen, ‘Emergent constraints on Earth’s transient and equilibrium response to doubled CO₂ from post-1970s global warming’. Nature Geosci, 2019. doi: 10.1038/s41561-019-0463-y.
• Eelco J. Rohling e.a., ‘Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity’. Nature, 2012. doi: 10.1038/nature11574.

Kader: Wetenschappelijke zoektocht

• Philip Goodwin, ‘On the Time Evolution of Climate Sensitivity and Future Warming’. Earth's Future, 2018. doi: 10.1029/2018EF000889.
• R. Kummer en A. E. Dessler, ‘The impact of forcing efficacy on the equilibrium climate sensitivity’. Geophys Res Lett, 2014. doi: 10.1002/2014GL060046.
• Kate Marvel e.a., ‘Implications for climate sensitivity from the response to individual forcings’. Nature Clim Change, 2015. doi: 10.1038/nclimate2888.

Wat betekent dit voor het toekomstige klimaat?

• Detlef P. van Vuuren e.a., ‘The representative concentration pathways: an overview’. Climatic Change, 2011. doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z.
• Kirsten Zickfeld e.a., ‘Long-Term Climate Change Commitment and Reversibility: An EMIC Intercomparison’. J Climate, 2013. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00584.1.

Zeespiegelstijging en risico

• Michiel van den Broeke, ‘Storten de ijskliffen van Antarctica in?’ Trouw, 2019.
• Deltaprogramma 2018, bijlage B, Advies Deltares.
• Kerry Emanuel, ‘Tail Risk versus Alarmism’. Climate Change National Forum, 2014.

7. Gevolgen van klimaatverandering

Veranderende weerpatronen

• ‘Temperatuur in Nederland en mondiaal, 1906 – 2017’. Compendium voor de leefomgeving, CBS, PBL, RIVM, WUR, 2018.
• ‘Kans op Elfstedentocht eens in twaalf jaar’, KNMI, 2019.
• ‘Hoe bijzonder zijn de nieuwe temperatuurrecords?’ KNMI, 2019.
• ‘Waarnemingen klimaatveranderingen’, KNMI.
• Coumou e.a., ‘The influence of Arctic amplification on mid-latitude summer circulation’. Nature Commun, 2018. doi: 10.1038/s41467-018-05256-8.
• ‘Jaarlijkse hoeveelheid neerslag in Nederland, 1910-2017’. Compendium voor de leefomgeving, CBS, PBL, RIVM, WUR, 2018.
• ‘Klimaatanalyse van extreme buien eind mei begin juni 2016’, KNMI, 2016.
• Lenderink e.a., ‘Scaling and trends of hourly precipitation extremes in two different climate zones – Hong Kong and the Netherlands’. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci, 2011. doi: 10.5194/hess-15-3033-2011.
• National Academies of Sciences. Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change. The National Academies Press, 2016. doi: 10.17226/21852.
• David M. J. S. Bowman e.a., ‘Fire in the Earth system’. Science, 2009. doi: 10.1126/science.1163886.
• Matt Jolly e.a., ‘Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013’. Nature Commun, 2015. doi: 10.1038/ncomms8537.
• Niels Andela e.a., ‘A human-driven decline in global burned area’. Science, 2017. doi: 10.1126/science.aal4108.

Orkanen

• John D. Murphy, ‘NOAA-NWS Service Assessment August/September 2017 Hurricane Harvey’. NOAA National Weather Service, 2018.
• James P. Kossin, ‘A global slowdown of tropical-cyclone translation speed’. Nature, 2018. doi: 10.1038/s41586-018-0158-3.
• James P. Kossin e.a., ‘The poleward migration of the location of tropical cyclone maximum intensity’. Nature, 2014. doi: 10.1038/nature13278.
• Thomas Knutson e.a., ‘Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part I: Detection and Attribution’. Bull Am Met Soc,2019, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0189.1.
• Thomas Knutson e.a., ‘Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part II. Projected Response to Anthropogenic Warming’. Bull Am Met Soc, 2019, doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0194.1.
• Adam H. Sobel, ‘Human influence on tropical cyclone intensity’. Science, 2016. doi: 10.1126/science.aaf6574.
• Stefan Rahmstorf e.a, ‘Does global warming make tropical cyclones stronger?’. Real Climate, 2018.

Kantelpunten

• Timothy M. Lenton e.a., ‘Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system’. P Natl Acad Sci, 2008. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0705414105.
• E.A.G. Schuur e.a., ‘Climate change and the permafrost carbon feedback’. Nature, 2015. doi: 10.1038/nature14338.
• ‘Larsen Ice Shelf’. Encyclopedia Brittannica.
• Timothy M. Lenton e.a., ‘Climate tipping points — too risky to bet against’. Nature 2019. doi: 10.1038/d41586-019-03595-0.
• L. Caesar e.a., ‘Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation’. Nature, 2018. doi: 10.1038/s41586-018-0006-5.

Zeespiegelstijging

• Factsheet: People and Oceans, United Nations, The Ocean Conference 2017.
• Curt D. Storlazzi e.a., ‘Most atolls will be uninhabitable by the mid-21st century because of sea-level rise exacerbating wave-driven flooding’. Sci Adv, 2018. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aap9741.
• Peter Kuipers Munneke, ‘De vraag is niet óf Nederland onder water verdwijnt, maar wannéér’. NRC, 11 juli 2018.
• Rolf Schuttenhelm, ‘De zeespiegelstijging is een groter probleem dan we denken. En Nederland heeft geen plan B.’ Vrij Nederland, 9 februari 2019.
• Xander Olsthoorn e.a., ‘Neo-Atlantis: The Netherlands under a 5-m sea level rise’. Climatic Change, 2008. doi: 10.1007/s10584-008-9423-z.

Effecten op de natuur

• ‘Dossier Eikenprocessierups’. Wageningen University & Research.
• Wenping Yuan e.a., ‘Increased atmospheric vapor pressure deficit reduces global vegetation growth’. Sci Adv, 2019. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.aax1396.
• Terry P. Hughes e.a., ‘Spatial and temporal patterns of mass bleaching of corals in the Anthropocene’. Science, 2018. doi: 10.1126/science.aan8048.
• Terry P. Hughes e.a., ‘Global warming transforms coral reef assemblages’. Nature, 2018. doi: 10.1038/s41586-018-0041-2.
• Lauretta Burke e.a., ‘Reefs at Risk Revisited’. World Resources Institute, 2011.
• ‘Status of coral reefs of the world: 2008’, Clive Wilkinson (ed). Global Coral Reef Monitoring Network and Reef and Rainforest Research Centre, Townsville, Australia 2008.
• Frieler e.a., ‘Limiting global warming to 2 °C is unlikely to save most coral reefs’. Nature Clim Change, 2013. doi: 10.1038/nclimate1674.
• Anthony D. Barnosky e.a., ‘Has the Earth’s sixth mass extinction already arrived?’. Nature, 2011. doi: 10.1038/nature09678.
• ‘Summary for policymakers of the global assessment report on biodiversity and ecosystem services of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services’. IPBES, 2019.

Mens en maatschappij

• ‘Veelgestelde vragen over de Aziatische tijgermug’. RIVM, 2019.
• ‘Water scarcity is one of the greatest challenges of our time’, World Economic Forum, 2019.
• ‘World Weather-Related Natural Catastrophes By Peril, 1980-2018’. Insurance Information Institute, Munich Re 2018.
• ZiaMehrabi e.a., ‘Can we sustain success in reducing deaths to extreme weather in a hotter world?’ World Dev Persp, 2019. doi: 10.1016/j.wdp.2019.02.018.
• Camilo Mora e.a., ‘Global risk of deadly heat’. Nature Clim Change, 2017. doi: 10.1038/nclimate3322.
• Nick Watts e.a., ‘The 2019 report of The Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: ensuring that the health of a child born today is not defined by a changing climate’. Lancet, 2019. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(19)32596-6.
• Andy Haines en Kristie Ebi, ‘The Imperative for Climate Action to Protect Health’. N Engl J Med, 2019. doi: 10.1056/NEJMra1807873.
• ‘Climate change and health’. World Health Organization, 2018.
• Solomon M. Hsiang e.a., ‘Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict’. Science, 2013. doi: 10.1126/science.1235367.
• Peter H. Gleick, ‘Water, Drought, Climate Change, and Conflict in Syria’. Weather, Climate, Soc, 2014. doi: 10.1175/WCAS-D-13-00059.1.
• Jan Selby e.a., ‘Climate change and the Syrian civil war revisited’. Political Geography, 2017. doi: 10.1016/j.polgeo.2017.05.007.
• Peter H. Gleick, ‘Climate, water, and conflict: Commentary on Selby et al. 2017’. Political Geography, 2017. doi: 10.1016/j.polgeo.2017.06.009.
• ‘National Security and the Accelerating Risks of Climate Change’. CNA Military Advisory Board, 2014.

8. Wat nu? Er zijn dingen die we kunnen doen!

Adaptatie en mitigatie

• Glenn Althor e.a., ‘Global mismatch between greenhouse gas emissions and the burden of climate change’. Scientific Reports, 2016. doi: 10.1038/srep20281.

Internationaal klimaatbeleid

• Paris Agreement. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2015.
• Jennifer Jacquet en Dale Jamieson, ‘Soft but significant power in the Paris Agreement‘. Nature Clim Change, 2016. doi: 10.1038/nclimate3006.

Kader: Helpt het akkoord van Parijs wel?

• Zeke Hausfather, ‘Analysis: Meeting Paris pledges would prevent at least 1C of global warming’. Carbon Brief, 2017.

Nederlands klimaatbeleid

• Klimaatakkoord. Rijksoverheid, 2019.
• Koen Schoots en Pieter Hammingh, ‘Klimaat- en Energieverkenning 2019’. Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving, 2019.

Economie, ecologie en bevolking

• David Archer, ‘The Kaya Identity. A simple model for forecasting future CO₂ emissions, based on trends in population, income, efficiency, and energy sources.’ University of Chicago. Kaya Identity Scenario Prognosticator.

Emissiereductie

• ‘The past, present and future of climate change’. The Economist, 2019.
• Kevin Anderson en Glen Peters, ‘BECCS: The trouble with negative emissions’. Science, 2016. doi: 10.1126/science.aah4567.
• Kendall Esmeijer e.a., ‘2 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios and possibilities of limiting the use of BECCS and bio-energy'. Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving, 2018.
• Jan Paul van Soest, ‘Sturing van de energietransitie duwen tegen een touw’. Energiepodium, 2016.

Kader: Een zonnescherm voor de aarde

• Monique Riphagen en Frans Brom (red.), ‘Klimaatengineering: hype, hoop of wanhoop?’ Rathenau Instituut, Den Haag, 2013.
• ‘Climate Intervention: Reflecting Sunlight to Cool Earth’. National Research Council of the National Academies. The National Academies Press, 2015.

Elektrificatie en waterstof

• Steven J. Davis e.a., ‘Net-zero emissions energy systems‘. Science, 2018. doi: 10.1126/science.aas9793.
• ‘Transforming the energy system – and holding the line on the rise of global temperatures.’ International Renewable Energy Agency, 2019.
• Auke Hoekstra, ‘The Underestimated Potential of Battery Electric Vehicles to Reduce Emissions’. Joule, 2019. doi: 10.1016/j.joule.2019.06.002.
• Werkgroep Waterstof, ‘Elektriciteit en Industrie – Achtergrondnotitie Waterstof’. Klimaatakkoord, 2019.

Duurzame energie

• Michaja Pehl e.a., ‘Understanding future emissions from low-carbon power systems by integration of life-cycle assessment and integrated energy modelling’. Nature Energy, 2017. doi: 10.1038/s41560-017-0032-9.
• ‘World Energy Outlook’. International Energy Agency, 2019.
• ‘Energiebronnen’. Milieucentraal.
• Marco Raugei e.a., ‘Energy Return on Energy Invested (ERoEI) for photovoltaic solar systems in regions of moderate insolation: A comprehensive response’. Energy Policy, 2017. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2016.12.042.
• Wallace P. Erickson e.a., ‘A Comprehensive Analysis of Small-Passerine Fatalities from Collision with Turbines at Wind Energy Facilities’. PLOS One, 2014. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0107491.

Biomassa

• Jan Ros e.a., ‘Sustainability of biomass in a bio-based economy’. Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving, 2012.
• Jan Ros en Anne G. Prins, ‘Biomassa wensen en grenzen’. Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving, 2014.
• Joseph Fargione e.a., ‘Land Clearing and the Biofuel Carbon Debt’. Science, 2008. doi: 10.1126/science.1152747.
• Timothy Searchinger e.a., ‘Use of U.S. Croplands for Biofuels Increases Greenhouse Gases Through Emissions from Land Use Change’. Science, 2008. doi: 10.1126/science.1151861.

Kernenergie

• Granger Morgan e.a., ‘US nuclear power: The vanishing low-carbon wedge’. P Natl Acad Sci, 2018. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1804655115.
• Stephen F. Ashley e.a., ‘Thorium fuel has risks’. Nature, 2012. doi: 10.1038/492031a.
• Erik van der Walle, ‘Waar blijft de eerste thoriumreactor?’ NRC Handelsblad, 2018.
• ‘Argumentenkaart nieuwe kerncentrales’, De Argumentenfabriek, 2008.

Kosten en baten

• Effecten ontwerp Klimaatakkoord, Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving, 2019.
• Marc Davidson, ‘Climate change and the ethics of discounting’. WIREs Clim Change, 2015. doi: 10.1002/wcc.347.
• Jonathan Koomey, ‘Moving beyond benefit–cost analysis of climate change’. Environ Res Lett, 2013. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/041005.
• ‘Present Value’. Investopedia.
• Ruth DeFries e.a., ‘The missing economic risks in assessments of climate change impacts’. London School of Economics, Grantham Institute, 2019.
• Peter Howard en Derek Sylvan, ‘Expert Consensus on the Economics of Climate Change’. Institute for Policy Integrity, 2015.
• Jan Paul van Soest en Hans Warmenhoven, ‘Klimaatbaten. De positieve bijvangst van klimaatbeleid’. De Gemeynt, 2016.
• Marshall Burke e.a., Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production. Nature, 2015. doi: 10.1038/nature15725.
• Frances C. Moore en Delavane Diaz, ‘Temperature impacts on economic growth warrant stringent mitigation policy’. Nature Clim Change, 2015. doi: 10.1038/nclimate2481.
• Martin L. Weitzman, ‘Fat-Tailed Uncertainty in the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change’. Rev Environm Econ Pol, 2011. doi: 10.1093/reep/rer006.

Kader: Een klein land in een grote wereld

• Bart Strengers, ‘Reactie op Marcel Crok’s stuk in Elsevier: klimaatbeleid is haalbaar, betaalbaar en zinvol’. Klimaatverandering, 2018.
• Olof van der Gaag, ‘Haags klimaatbeleid had al te veel adempauzes’. Volkskrant, 2019.

Beprijzen van CO₂-uitstoot

• Pei Wang e.a., ‘Estimates of the social cost of carbon: A review based on metaanalysis’. J Cleaner Prod, 2019. doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.11.058.
• Jeroen C.J.M. van den Bergh en Wouter J.W. Botzen, ‘Monetary valuation of the social cost of CO₂ emissions: A critical survey’. Ecol Econ, 2015. doi: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2015.03.015.
• Jeroen C.J.M. van den Bergh en Wouter J.W. Botzen, ‘A lower bound to the social cost of CO₂ emissions’. Nature Clim Change, 2014. doi: 10.1038/nclimate2135.

Individuele verantwoordelijkheid versus structurele verandering

• Heleen de Coninck, ‘Dit verhaal galmt vandaag over de Dam tijdens de klimaatmars: We hébben een keuze’. Trouw, 2019.
• Michael E. Mann, ‘Lifestyle changes aren’t enough to save the planet. Here’s what could’. Time, 2019.
• Ruben Jacobs, ‘Ja, we hebben systeemverandering nodig. Maar dat gaat niet zonder jou’. Brainwash, 2019.
• Pieter Boussemaere, Tien klimaatacties die werken. Davidsfonds Uitgeverij, 2018.
• Jelmer Mommers, Hoe gaan de dit uitleggen. De Correspondent, 2019.
• Project Drawdown. The world’s leading resource for climate solutions.
• Milieucentraal. Praktisch over duurzaam.

Illustratieverantwoording

Figuren

De herkomst van de data of van de figuren is hieronder aangegeven. Figuren 12 en 13 zijn met toestemming overgenomen van het IPCC en figuur 15 van Worldmapper. De andere figuren zijn gemaakt door Jos Hagelaars.

• Figuur 1
  Het idee voor dit schema van het broeikaseffect is gebaseerd op figuur 3.6 uit: Raymond T. Pierrehumbert, Principles of Planetary Climate, Cambridge University Press, 2010.
• Figuur 2
  
  • Dieter Lüthi e.a., ‘High-resolution carbon dioxide concentration record 650,000-800,000 years before present’. Nature, 2008. doi: 10.1038/nature06949.
    Data: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo-search/study/6091.
  • MacFarling Meure e.a., ‘Law Dome CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O Ice Core Records Extended to 2000 years BP’. Geophys Res Lett, 2006. doi: 10.1029/2006GL026152.
    Data: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo-search/study/9959.
  • Pieter Tans en Ralph Keeling, ‘Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide’, Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
    Data: ftp://aftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/products/trends/co2/co2_annmean_gl.txt.
  • Charles D. Keeling e.a., ‘Exchanges of atmospheric CO₂ and ¹³CO₂ with the terrestrial biosphere and oceans from 1978 to 2000’. Scripps Institution of Oceanography, 2001.
    Data: https://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/data/atmospheric_co2/primary_mlo_co2_record.html.
• Figuur 3
  James Hansen e.a., ‘Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide’. Phil Trans R Soc A, 2013. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2012.0294.
  Data: http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Sensitivity+SL+CO2/Table.txt.
• Figuur 4
  Peter U. Clark e.a., ‘Consequences of twenty-first-century policy for multi-millennial climate and sea-level change’. Nature Clim Change, 2016. doi: 10.1038/nclimate2923.
• Figuur 5
  
  • Colin P. Morice e.a., ‘Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 dataset’. J. Geophys. Res., 2012. doi: 10.1029/2011JD017187. www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/.
    Data: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/data/current/download.html.
  • GISTEMP Team, ‘GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP)’. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2019. Data: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/.
  • Lenssen e.a., ‘Improvements in the GISTEMP uncertainty model’. J Geophys Res Atmos, 2019. doi: 10.1029/2018JD029522.
  • NOAA Global Surface Temperature, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, ESRL PSD, www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/.
    Data: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/noaa-global-surface-temperature/v5/access/timeseries/.
  • Kevin Cowtan en Robert Way, ‘Coverage bias in the HADCRUT4 temperature series and its impact on recent temperature trends’. Q J R Meteorol Soc, 2014. doi: 10.1002/qj.2297.
    Data: http://www-users.york.ac.uk/~kdc3/papers/coverage2013/series.html.
  • Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Project, www.berkeleyearth.org.
    Data: http://berkeleyearth.org/data/.
  • Het lopend gemiddelde is een zogenaamde Loess smooth: William S. Cleveland, ‘Robust Locally Weighted Regression and Smoothing Scatterplots’. J Am Stat Ass, 1979. doi: 10.1080/01621459.1979.10481038.
• Figuur 6
  
  • GISTEMP Team, ‘GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP)’. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2019.
    Data: https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/.
  • Lenssen e.a., ‘Improvements in the GISTEMP uncertainty model’. J Geophys Res Atmos, 2019. doi: 10.1029/2018JD029522.
• Figuur 7
  
  • Zeespiegelstijging langs de Nederlandse kust en mondiaal, 1890-2017. Compendium voor de Leefomgeving, CBS, PBL, RIVM, WUR, 2018.
  • Aviso+ Satellite Altimetry Data, 2019.
    Data: https://www.aviso.altimetry.fr/en/data/products/ocean-indicators-products/mean-sea-level.html.
• Figuur 8
  Fetterer e.a., ‘Sea Ice Index, Version 3. NH-Extent + SH-Extent’. NSIDC, 2017. doi: 10.7265/N5K072F8.
  Data: ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/Sea_Ice_Index_Monthly_Data_by_Year_G02135_v3.0.xlsx.
• Figuur 9
  Technical Summary, Figuur TS.3. in IPCC, 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report. O.R. Edenhofer e.a. (eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2014.
• Figuur 10
  Zeke Hausfather, ‘Why scientists think 100% of global warming is due to humans’. Carbon Brief, 2017.
• Figuur 11
  Stephan Lewandowsky, ‘The ‘pause’ in global warming in historical context: (II). Comparing models to observations’. Environm Res Lett, 2018. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aaf372.
• Figuur 12
  Aangepast op basis van Figuur 1a uit: Summary for Policymakers. In IPCC, 2019: Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. H.- O. Pörtner e.a. (eds.).
• Figuur 13
  Aangepast op basis van Figuur 4.2 uit: Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities. In IPCC, 2019: Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate. H.- O. Pörtner e.a. (eds.).
• Figuur 14
  
  • Stefan Rahmstorf, ‘How much CO₂ your country can still emit, in three simple steps’, RealClimate, 2019.
  • Emissies broeikasgassen, 1990-2018, Compendium voor de Leefomgeving, CBS, PBL, RIVM, WUR, 2019.
  • Uitstoot broeikasgassen licht gedaald, CBS, 2019.
  • Lijst van landen naar inwonertal, Wikipedia.
• Figuur 15
  Aangepast op basis van ‘CO₂ Emissions per capita 2016’. Worldmapper.

Tekeningen

De tekeningen zijn gemaakt door Marije Mooren. De volgende bronnen hebben ter inspiratie gediend:

• Aarde en zon
  Fran Bagenal, ‘Planets, Moons & Rings’, class 12 notes. University of Colorado, 2004.
• De energiebalans van de aarde
  Kevin E. Trenberth e.a., ‘Earth's Global Energy Budget’. Bull Am Meteorol Soc, 2009. doi: 10.1175/2008BAMS2634.1.
• De koolstofcyclus
  FAQ 6.2, Figure 1: ‘Carbon and other Biogeochemical Cycles’. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Thomas Stocker e.a. (eds), Cambridge University Press, 2013.
• Het veranderende klimaat
  John Cook e.a., ‘Warming Indicators’. Skeptical Science.
• Menselijke vingerafdrukken
  John Cook e.a., ‘Human Fingerprints’. Skeptical Science.
• Gevolgen van klimaatverandering
  Figure 25 uit: ‘Potential Effects of Climate Change’. In: Climate Change Impacts in the United States, The Third National Climate Assessment, Jerry M. Melillo e.a. (eds). U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2014. doi: 10.7930/J0Z31WJ2.

• Veelgebruikte bronnen
• Hoofdstuk 1
• Hoofdstuk 2
• Hoofdstuk 3
• Hoofdstuk 4
• Hoofdstuk 5
• Hoofdstuk 6
• Hoofdstuk 7
• Hoofdstuk 8
• Illustratieverantwoording

• Alg
• H 1
• H 2
• H 3
• H 4
• H 5
• H 6
• H 7
• H 8
• Illus